As of August 2025, Bitcoin is experiencing considerable volatility, trading near $113,700 and struggling to maintain levels above $115,000. This resistance, attributed to the 50-day moving average, has thwarted recent attempts at a rebound. The broader cryptocurrency market has seen a modest increase of 1%, bringing total capitalization to approximately $3.86 trillion. However, analysts caution that this movement may be more of a temporary bounce rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.
“The technology sector in traditional financial markets remains under pressure, dampening the mood of cryptocurrency buyers,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Bitcoin’s unsuccessful attempt to return above $115K only highlights the market’s weakness.”
A notable trend in the market is the significant outflows from Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Data from SoSoValue indicates that Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $523 million on August 19, followed by $311 million on Wednesday and an additional $192 million on Thursday. Similarly, Ethereum ETFs faced over $500 million in outflows during this timeframe, reversing the inflows seen the previous week. Kronos Research attributes this trend to profit-taking and liquidations following Bitcoin’s record high earlier in August.
The mood among investors has been further dampened by negative headlines. The SEC is currently investigating Alt5 Sigma due to its $1.5 billion deal with World Liberty Financial, a firm associated with former U.S. President Donald Trump. Additionally, Ethereum’s on-chain metrics have shown signs of weakness, with active addresses plummeting 28% since July 30. Currently, Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $4,289, reflecting a mere 0.4% increase on the day but a decline of over 7% from its recent highs.
Similar patterns are observed in XRP and Solana. XRP has fallen to $2.87, while Solana is priced at $183, both tokens experiencing more than a 6% decline over the week. Analysts suggest that a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve could prompt short-term rebounds; however, without fresh capital inflows, these recoveries may be limited. The derivatives market also indicates growing hedging pressure, with the 30-day delta skew in Bitcoin options reaching 12% this week, a four-month high, signaling increased demand for downside protection.
“Bitcoin’s weakness is currently driven primarily by macroeconomic factors,” stated Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, in an email to CoinDesk. “No significant bearish crypto-native developments are weighing on the market.”
Lienkha further elaborated that the current market dynamics are influenced by elevated selling pressure in equity markets, leading to a risk-off sentiment affecting Bitcoin. He expressed uncertainty regarding whether the current positioning represents short-term hedging ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech or indicates a more profound market shift.
Despite the prevailing negative sentiment, some analysts remain optimistic about longer-term catalysts for Bitcoin. Bitwise has suggested that allocations from U.S. pension plans could propel Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025, potentially surpassing the effects of spot ETF approvals. Initial inflows from these pension plans may commence as early as autumn, according to their analysis.
As traders prepare for Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, the market is keenly observing for any dovish signals that could alleviate pressure on risk assets. Conversely, a reluctance to endorse rate cuts may exacerbate Bitcoin’s current decline, which has already seen a 9% decrease from its recent peaks.
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