An analyst from New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) has issued a cautionary note regarding potential market volatility for companies holding Bitcoin as part of their treasury. In 2025, the gap between share prices and net asset values (NAV) of Bitcoin-oriented firms has significantly narrowed, leading to concerns about the sustainability of current market premiums for digital asset treasury (DAT) firms. According to Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global head of research, this compression in premiums is likely to worsen unless prompt actions are taken by these firms.
Cipolaro indicated that despite Bitcoin (BTC) reaching new all-time highs, the stock prices of major purchasing firms, including Metaplanet and Strategy, continue to align more closely with their NAVs. He noted,
“The forces behind this compression appear to be varied. Investor anxiety over forthcoming supply unlocks, changing corporate objectives from DAT management teams, tangible increases in share issuance, investor profit-taking, and limited differentiation across treasury strategies”
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The rising trend of crypto treasury firms on Wall Street has attracted billions of dollars over the past year. Investors often assess the health of these companies by comparing their share prices to the value of the assets they hold. Cipolaro warned that a “bumpy ride may be ahead” for many crypto treasury firms, particularly as several are in the process of awaiting mergers or financing deals to go public. This scenario could trigger a substantial wave of selling from existing shareholders, particularly if share prices fall below their NAV.
Notably, some treasury companies, including KindlyMD and Twenty One Capital, are currently trading at or below the value of their recent fundraises. Cipolaro suggested that if the shares of a treasury company were to trade below its NAV, one effective strategy could be stock buybacks. He emphasized,
“If we were to give one piece of advice to DATs, it’s to save some of the funds raised aside to support shares via buybacks.”
As of this year, Bitcoin purchasing companies have amassed a peak total of 840,000 BTC, with Strategy holding 76% of this total, or 637,000 BTC, according to a recent report from CryptoQuant. The increasing number of monthly purchases was noted, although there was a decline in the total Bitcoin acquired by these companies in August, falling below the average for 2025. For instance, Strategy’s average purchase size decreased from a peak of 14,000 BTC to 1,200 BTC in August, while other companies reduced their purchases by 86%, from 2,400 BTC in March.
This slowdown in acquisition has led to a significant decrease in the growth of Bitcoin treasury holdings. Strategy’s monthly growth rate fell to 5% last month, a stark contrast to the 44% increase recorded at the end of 2024. Similarly, other firms reported an 8% growth in August, down from 163% in March. Currently, Bitcoin is trading flat at approximately $111,200, reflecting a 10.5% decline from its peak of over $124,000 in mid-August, as reported by CoinGecko.
In conclusion, as crypto treasury firms navigate this complex landscape characterized by compressed premiums and shareholder anxieties, their strategies moving forward will be pivotal in maintaining investor confidence and market stability.
For further details, you can refer to the original article on Cointelegraph.
